The Three Kingdoms: I asked you to save Guan Yu, not to destroy Sun Quan.

Chapter 150 Zhuge Liang's Prediction of Cao Cao

Liu Bei hated his brother-in-law Sun Quan so much that his back teeth itched.

This brother-in-law is dishonest. Back then, under the pretext of attending Wu Guotai's funeral, he instigated Sun Shangxiang to kidnap Liu Shan. Now, at a crucial moment, he betrayed Guan Yu, causing Guan Yu's Northern Expedition to fail and almost costing him his life.

If Guan Xing hadn't suggested a surprise attack on Jianye, Guan Yu wouldn't even dare to imagine what would have become of him now.

My brother-in-law has betrayed me like this, shouldn't I take this opportunity to retaliate? Shouldn't I?

Huang Quan also harbored resentment towards Sun Quan, and seeing this, he did not try to persuade him further. He bowed and said, "I will write it down as soon as I get back. By the way, strategist, what important matter do you have that you must come all the way to Yiling to discuss?"

Upon hearing this, Liu Bei and Zhang Fei both looked at Zhuge Liang. Hanzhong was not a short distance from Yiling, yet Zhuge Liang couldn't wait for them to come and instead had to make the trip alone, which showed how urgent the matter was.

Zhuge Liang instinctively wanted to wave his feather fan, but found that he only had the handle left in his hand, so he had to throw it away and said solemnly, "I suspect that Cao Cao has seen through our intention to launch the Northern Expedition, so I would like to discuss with Your Majesty the possibility of adjusting our strategy."

Upon hearing this, Liu Bei's expression changed drastically, and he couldn't help but exclaim in surprise, "What? Are you sure?"

There was a fundamental difference in strength between him and Cao Cao. The only way for him to take Chang'an quickly was to launch a sneak attack while Cao Cao was not paying attention. If the sneak attack failed, he would have to launch a frontal assault. With his pitiful troops, he would not be able to take Chang'an, let alone even get close to the city's moat.

I abandoned my second brother for this sneak attack, and now you're telling me Cao Cao saw through our intentions?

What's the point of fighting then? Just go home and sleep.

Zhang Fei and Huang Quan were also quite shocked by the news, but they didn't rush to speak. Instead, they stared intently at Zhuge Liang, waiting for him to continue.

Zhuge Liang said, "Your Majesty, you have dealt with Cao Cao for so many years, you should know that he is a suspicious man who likes to get to the bottom of things. It is difficult to deceive him, but our recent behavior is very suspicious."

"The biggest point of suspicion is that General Guan was betrayed by Sun Quan and his entire army was wiped out. You have a deep-seated hatred for Sun Quan, so you should have launched a counterattack immediately. At the very least, you should have negotiated with Sun Quan and exchanged General Guan for him to fulfill your brotherhood. That would have been the most logical thing to do."

"But we didn't do either of those things. Instead, we stayed in Yiling and wasted our time. Although the official explanation was that we couldn't break through Yidao City, which prevented the army from advancing further, do you think Cao Cao would believe that reason?"

"Your Majesty, you have dominated the world for decades, while Lu Xun and Sun Huan on the other side are virtually unknown. To say that you cannot break through their defenses is something that even a ghost, let alone Cao Cao, would not believe."

Although Liu Bei did not break through Lu Xun and Sun Huan's defenses in the Battle of Yiling in history, this was only known after the battle. Before the battle, everyone agreed that Liu Bei would never lose.

Just as no one expected Yuan Shao to lose before the Battle of Guandu, and no one expected Cao Cao to lose before the Battle of Red Cliffs, people who do practical things and speak the truth are never trusted.

Liu Bei frowned and said, "This is indeed a big loophole. If Cao Cao seizes on this point and investigates it thoroughly, he may be able to see through our intentions. It seems that Chang'an is out of our reach for the time being. How about we simply break through Yidao City and attack Jiangling directly?"

Since Chang'an is already under defense, there's no need to go there. Why waste energy knowing we can't take it?

But the tens of thousands of troops cannot remain idle. If they cannot defeat Cao Cao, they will attack Sun Quan, recapture Jiangling, and connect Jingzhou and Jiangdong into one.

Zhuge Liang shook his head and said, "No, the worst person to attack right now is Sun Quan. The reason is simple: if we attack Sun Quan, Cao Cao will definitely get involved, but if we attack Cao Cao, Sun Quan will most likely just stand by and watch."

"Moreover, with Lü Meng's retreat, Jiangling has now amassed nearly 100,000 troops. Coupled with the strong city defenses personally overseen by General Guan, our forces cannot possibly take it in the short term. If we get bogged down in Jiangling and the Wei army moves south in time, they could very well wipe out both us and Sun Quan. In that case, we would be doing all the work for Cao Cao. So we still have to fight Cao Cao."

Given Liu Bei's strength, dealing with either Cao Cao or Sun Quan would be difficult enough; to fight both at the same time would be suicidal.

Liu Bei frowned and said, "But now that Cao Cao has seen through our intentions, he will definitely send troops to reinforce the Guanzhong defense line. At the very least, he will remind Chang'an to be on high alert. We have no chance now."

Zhuge Liang shook his head and said, "We may not have a chance in Chang'an, but we might have a chance in other places. If we can't take Chang'an, we'll take Longxi."

"To be honest, I have always had concerns about attacking Chang'an. Chang'an is like a beautiful flower, which looks lovely but is covered in thorns. It can only be admired from afar and not touched, otherwise you will get hurt."

"You must know that Chang'an is a big city. Even if Cao Cao doesn't see through our intentions and allows us to reach the city gates smoothly, we won't be able to break through in the short term. At that time, the general defending Chang'an only needs to mobilize the people to defend the city, and we can easily hold out until reinforcements arrive."

"But Longxi is different. First of all, Cao Cao has only recently taken over Liangzhou and his control over Longxi is very weak. Secondly, Longxi is too far away. Even if Cao Cao wanted to provide support, it would take time. In addition, there is a long supply line. Cao Cao's strength in Longxi is absolutely incomparable to that in Chang'an. Longxi is the current weak point of the Wei army."

"More importantly, the Longxi Highlands are a strategic stronghold, with a terrain much higher than Guanzhong. If we take Longxi, we can stand on the mountaintop and look west to Chang'an, where we can advance or retreat as needed."

The threat that Longxi posed to Guanzhong was just as deadly as the threat that Xiangyang posed to Jingzhou. If Liu Bei took Longxi, he would have gained the initiative in the war against Cao Wei. He could retreat or attack at will, leaving Cao Wei helpless.

Huang Quan chimed in, "I agree with the strategist's opinion. Even if we successfully take Chang'an, we will be attacked from both the east and west by Guandong and Longxi. We may be driven out before we can even establish a foothold. But taking Longxi will be different. We can settle down and build up our troops in Longxi and wait for the right opportunity to advance eastward."

"Moreover, Longxi also has the Shandan Military Horse Farm built by Marquis Huo Qubing. If we can get our hands on that military horse farm, the benefits will be obvious."

Upon hearing about the Shandan military horse farm, Liu Bei's eyes lit up with excitement. He stroked his beard and pondered, "Attack on Chang'an is indeed not safe. Let's follow the strategist's advice and attack Longxi first. Strategist, tell me your plan."

The most important quality of a ruler is decisiveness; he should act immediately without delay, and Liu Bei was qualified in this respect.

Zhuge Liang said, "Our previous plan was to march straight to Mei County along the Baoxie Road, take Wugong, and head straight for Chang'an, capturing the city before the Wei army could react."

"We must do it this way again. I will lead the Hanzhong army northward along the Baoxie Road to attract the attention of the Wei army, while Your Majesty will personally lead the elite troops into the Qishan Road to attack Longxi."

Although there are several routes from Hanzhong into Guanzhong, only the Chencang Road and Baoxie Road are commonly used. As for the Tangluo Road and Ziwu Road, the terrain is too treacherous and not suitable for large-scale troop marches. It might be possible to try for an army of less than 5,000 people, but for an army of more than 5,000 people, taking these two roads is tantamount to suicide. Not to mention anything else, the supply alone can kill you.

To be precise, only the Baoxie Road was suitable for marching, because the Chencang Road was also not suitable for large armies due to the river's change of course.

Therefore, the only route that allowed Liu Bei's tens of thousands of troops to quickly reach Guanzhong was the Baoxie Road.

After a moment's thought, Liu Bei said, "A feint to the east while attacking in the west is not impossible, but the Baoxie Road is my territory. Only if I personally lead the army into the Baoxie Road can we attract more Wei troops."

"Therefore, I will lead the Hanzhong army to attract the Wei army's attention, while you will lead the elite troops from Yiling out of Qishan to attack Longxi."